A new study by the University of Washington, yesterday, projected Nigeria becoming world’s ninth largest economy by next century – 2100 – amid shrink population. Currently 28th largest global economy, Nigeria’s economy is predicted to witness negative GDP growth this year and gradually improve its ranking to 17th largest in 2050.
The study by University of Washington published on The Lancet said Nigeria will finally find a place in the world’s top 10 economies as its working age population swells from 86 million in 2017 to 458 million in 2100.
Based on its study, University of Washington justified its conclusion that Nigeria will become the world’s ninth-largest economy with a life expectancy higher than 80 years based on the projection that by 2100, Nigeria will have a population size that is 3.8 times larger than 2017.
The study revealed that world’s population would be far less in the next century than previously estimated, but a lot older, providing opportunities to countries with young populations to boost their economies. The study concluded that as the population shrinks in many parts of the world, Nigeria – a developing country with a raging young workforce – could become the ninthlargest global economy, drastically changing the world order in 2100.
According to the university’s findings, world’s population is likely to peak to 9.7 billion by 2064, but with women having fewer children, the numbers will start declining and stabilize at 8.8 billion by 2100. At the same time, a little more than a quarter of the global population or 2.37 billion individuals, would be over the age of 65 and only 1.7 billion below 20, vastly reducing the global workforce.
“The decline in the numbers of working-age adults alone will reduce GDP growth rates that could result in major shifts in global economic power by the century’s end,” said Stein Emil Vollset, first author of the study. The population of 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain, is already on course to shrink by more than 50 per cent.